There is a moment in every great footballer's career where the question shifts. It stops being "how good is he?" and becomes "how much longer can this last?" For most players that moment arrives in their early thirties. For Luka Modrić, it has been arriving — and being postponed — for nearly a decade.
At 40, he is the oldest outfield player at the 2026 World Cup. At 40, he is still Croatia's most important player. At 40, he boards a plane to North America for what everyone understands, though nobody wants to say, is the last time.
Croatia have done this before. They have turned up at tournaments that should have been too big for them, with squads that should have been too thin, and made history anyway. The 2018 final in Russia — a country of four million people reaching the biggest match in football — remains one of the most extraordinary things the World Cup has produced.
They are not that team anymore. The golden generation that reached that final has aged. Rakitić is gone. Mandžukić is gone. Lovren has gone. What remains is Modrić, and a group of players who would not be here without him — who understand that this tournament is partly about the football and partly about sending the greatest player in their history out the right way.
The Modrić Timeline
Group L — The Challenge
Group L is not comfortable for Croatia. England are the group favourites — better squad, more depth, stronger on paper at every position. Ghana are not a team to take lightly, particularly in the context of African football's growing strength. Panama, making their second World Cup appearance, will fight for every point.
Croatia's chaos index of 35 is one of the lowest in the tournament. That is not an insult — it reflects a team that is organised, disciplined, and extremely difficult to beat. They do not concede goals carelessly. They do not lose matches they should win. They are, in football terminology, very hard to play against.
The problem is that Croatia at their best are not just hard to beat — they are capable of beating anyone. The question is whether this squad, at this age profile, can still access that level when it matters.
The England Fixture
England versus Croatia at a major tournament. This fixture has history.
2018 World Cup semi-final: Croatia beat England in extra time. Trippier's free kick, then Perišić's equaliser, then Modrić orchestrating everything until Mandžukić scored the winner at 109 minutes. England went home. Croatia went to the final.
2020 European Championship group stage: England beat Croatia 1-0. Raheem Sterling. Revenge, of a sort.
2026 is different. England have moved on from that 2018 team. Croatia have too — but in the opposite direction. England have Bellingham, Saka, Foden. Croatia have Modrić and a group of players built around him. The generational shift is real.
And yet. Croatia at a World Cup, in a match that matters, with Modrić on the pitch. The AI can calculate all it wants. There is a variable that statistics do not fully capture.
England vs Croatia — Group L
The match that defines the group. Free half-time score prediction:
What Happens When Modrić Retires
Croatia's population is four million people. They have produced, in the last thirty years, an extraordinary concentration of world-class footballers — Šuker, Boban, Bilić, Rakitić, Mandžukić, Perišić, and above all Modrić. The pipeline of talent that made the 2018 run possible does not automatically regenerate.
The next generation of Croatian football — Josip Šutalo, Martin Baturina, Luka Sučić — are talented. They are not yet what the 2018 generation was. They may never be. The conditions that produced Modrić — a country rebuilding after war, a fierce national pride channelled into football, a generation of players who treated every match like it might be their last — are not easily replicated.
When Modrić walks off the pitch for the final time at a World Cup, Croatian football enters a new era. It will be a smaller era. That is not a criticism — it is just mathematics. Nations of four million people do not produce Luka Modrić every generation.
How Far Will Croatia Go?
The AI predicts Croatia qualify from Group L in second place, behind England. Ghana will push them — the match against Ghana could go either way and will likely determine who finishes second. Panama are the minimum points requirement.
In the Round of 32, Croatia's low chaos index becomes an asset. They are exactly the kind of team that causes problems in knockout football — organised, experienced, with a player who has won knockout matches no team should have won.
The quarter-finals is the realistic ceiling for this squad. Not because they lack quality, but because the depth is thinner than in 2018 and the opposition in the knockout rounds will be significantly stronger than Group L suggests.
A quarter-final exit would, by any objective measure, be a fine tournament for a nation of four million. By the standard Croatia themselves have set — by the standard Modrić himself has set — it would feel like something was left on the table.
"Croatia qualify second in Group L behind England. They win the Ghana match on a Modrić free kick that nobody who sees it will ever forget. They reach the Round of 16 and make the favourites work harder than anyone expected. They go out with dignity, as they always do. Modrić walks off the pitch. Croatia applaud. Football is slightly smaller than it was before."